小小iPhone能给经济带来大影响
The next iPhone, which Apple Inc. plans to unveil this week, could do something the White House, Congress and Federal Reserve have struggled to do: boost the U.S. economy.苹果公司(Apple Inc.)计划这周公布的新一代iPhone，可以做到一件白宫、美国国会和美联储(Federal Reserve)都
The next iPhone, which Apple Inc. plans to unveil this week, could do something the White House, Congress and Federal Reserve have struggled to do: boost the U.S. economy.苹果公司(Apple Inc.)计划这周公布的新一代iPhone，可以做到一件白宫、美国国会和美联储(Federal Reserve)都仍然无法做的事情：提振美国经济。Sales of the new iPhone could add between a quarter and a half of a percentage point to the annualized rate of economic growth in the fourth quarter, J.P. Morgan Chase Co.s chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli estimates. That could help cushion the sluggish U.S. economy from other risks in the final months of the year.摩根大通(J.P. Morgan Chase Co.)首席美国经济学家酬劳洛里(Michael Feroli)说道，新的iPhone的销售未来将会使第四季度年化经济增长率提升0.25至0.5个百分点。这有可能有助不振的美国经济在年内最后几个月应付来自其他风险的冲击。In a note to clients Monday, titled Can one little phone impact GDP?, Mr. Feroli walks through the math: J.P. Morgans equity analysts expect Apple to sell about eight million new iPhone units in the final three months of 2012.弗洛里周一向客户发送到了一份为题《小小手机能否影响GDP？》的报告，说明了上述结论的计算出来过程：摩根大通股权分析师预计苹果将在2012年最后三个月售出大约800万部新的iPhone。
If the phone sells for around $600, with about $200 of it counted as imported components, then $400 per phone would add to the governments measure of gross domestic product, the total value of the economys output.如果售价大约为600美元，其中摩根大通算为进口零部件的部分在200美元左右，那么每部手机就不会使政府统计资料的国内生产总值(GDP)减少400美元。Even though consumers may not pay that much for the phone, because of subsidies from wireless carriers, Mr. Feroli explains that companies often report phone sales based on the price of the stand-alone product.虽然电信运营商的补贴可能会让消费者不必缴纳那么多钱，但费洛里说明，企业在报告手机销售额的时候，经常是基于单个产品的价格。
The bottom line: The new iPhone sales could boost GDP by $3.2 billion in the fourth quarter, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate. That is an increase of 0.33 percentage point in the annualized rate of GDP growth. It could be even higher, he says. Even a third of a percentage point would limit the risk the economy would grow more slowly than J.P. Morgans fourth-quarter growth projection of 2%.总之，新的iPhone的销售额未来将会将第四季度的GDP提升32亿美元，折算成年率为128亿美元，相等于年化GDP增长率提升0.33个百分点。弗洛里说道，实际有可能还不会更高。哪怕只有三分之一个百分点，也不会减少第四季度实际经济增长速度高于摩根大通预测速度2%的风险。Mr. Feroli warns that the estimate seems fairly large, and for that reason should be treated skeptically but adds: We think the recent evidence is consistent with this projection.弗洛里警告说道，这个估算数字看上去或许相当大，所以应该抱着猜测态度。
但他也说道：我们指出近期经常出现的证据与这一预测吻合。One clue: When the iPhone 4S became widely available last October, he writes, over half of the 0.8% increase in the nations so-called core retail sales─which exclude autos, gasoline and building materials─came in the categories of online sales and computer and software sales. The two categories together had their largest monthly increase on record.他写到，另一条线索是，当去年10月份iPhone 4S普遍上市销售时，核心零售额（回避汽车、汽油和建材）0.8%的增幅中，多达一半的增幅来自网上销售和电脑及软件销售。这两个项目特一起的月增长幅度超过有记录以来最低水平。He estimates the sales growth was due to the iPhone, which boosted overall GDP growth by a fifth to a 10th of a percentage point. The new iPhone launch will be even bigger than that, he says, making the latest estimate reasonable.酬劳洛里估算这种快速增长归功于iPhone，它使整个GDP增长速度提升了0.1至0.2个百分点。
他说道，新一代iPhone是分量更大的产品，所以近期的估算是“合理”的。In the final three months of last year, the U.S. economy expanded rapidly at a 4.1% annual rate, and then slowed sharply to a 2% pace in the first quarter of this year, and 1.7% in the second quarter.去年最后三个月，美国经济年化增长率约4.1%，今年一季度大幅度滑行至2%，二季度又降到1.7%。
Many analysts have recently lowered their forecasts for economic growth in the second half of the year for reasons including the drought, higher oil prices and uncertainty about U.S. budget policies. Last week, the forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers shaved its forecasts for economic growth to a 1.5% annual rate in the third-quarter and 1.4% in the fourth quarter, both down seven-tenths of a percentage point, largely due to the effect of the drought on farm output.很多分析师最近上调了美国下半年经济快速增长预期，原因还包括旱灾、油价下跌及美国支出政策的不确定性。预测公司Macroeconomic Advisers上周将第三季度年化经济增长率预期上调至1.5%，将第四季度预期上调至1.4%，分别都叛了0.7个百分点，理由主要是旱灾对农业产量的影响。
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